China’s FPD TV shipments including LCD and plasma technologies increased 35% Y/Y to 10.5 million units in the first half of 2010. The growth is impressive but is quite a bit less than the 52% Y/Y increase experienced in the first half of 2009. This is according to the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce (CECC) and as reported by Digitimes.
The numbers coming out of the CECC seem to be on the conservative side. In China TV Market: 80% LCD TV, I quoted numbers reported by China-based All View Consulting that pegged just LCD TV shipments at 13.78 million units from January to May.
iSuppli has forecasted LCD TV shipments in China to be 36 million units for 2010, which would put the first half at 19.8 million units assuming a 55:45 split between the first and second halves for China, respectively. Typical in North America and Western Europe 60% of TV sales are in the second half. On the other hand, China because peak shopping seasons such as the country’s New Year and Golden Week are in the first half of the year I am assuming there is a 55:45 split favoring the first half in China. iSuppli’s forecast might be a bit too optimistic.
One thing is for sure: it is difficult if not impossible to accurately assess the rapidly-growing TV market in China. The CECC also noted LED-backlight LCD TV sales in China should reach six million units representing 40% of total LCD TV revenues in 2010. All companies connected to the LCD TV supply chain are chasing LED backlights because the technology provides an opportunity to increase profit margins. Unfortunately there are LED supply constraints.
Update: But wait a minute. What does these unit shipments mean? My four year old might think that having 12 coins is better than 10 coins but that isn’t always the case. Same goes for LCD TV shipments: twenty million isn’t necessarily better than 18. It is about the composition of those LCD TVs. If a whole bunch of really cheap low-margin LCD TVs make a large chunk of the twenty million the overall value could very well be less than the 18 million units. The entire LCD TV supply chain would be in trouble. Let’s stop counting units as if every unit was of equal value. Units without revenues are useless measurements. My four year old has started to value the different types of coins; shouldn’t the LCD market do that too?
