Comments on: LG Display to Post Strong Q1 Results http://www.displayblog.com/2008/04/08/lg-display-to-post-strong-q1-results/ Display Market News, Analysis, Research and Consulting Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:32:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Jin http://www.displayblog.com/2008/04/08/lg-display-to-post-strong-q1-results/#comment-286 Jin Thu, 22 May 2008 23:52:49 +0000 http://displayblog.wordpress.com/?p=1119#comment-286 I can't believe I have not responded to your comment! First of all, thank you for your comment! I think a similar situation in the LCD market is happening today. Inventory levels are slowly climbing in the US for LCD TVs and in general demand for high-tech goods are lukewarm. Will it get any better? It is anyone's guess, but I wouldn't expect a miracle to happen where all of the sudden everyone goes out and spends thousands on LCD TVs, LCD monitors and notebook PCs. It is to everyone's benefit for the LCD supply chain to be smooth and without hiccups. But with LCD manufacturers loading 32" LCD TV panels at their G8 and G7 lines in addition to putting more focus on IT panels, their profit margins are at stake. Will really low prices for LCD TVs and monitors get consumers to buy in 2H'08? To some extent, but we need credit and disposable income to do that; two things all of us are wanting more of these days. I can’t believe I have not responded to your comment! First of all, thank you for your comment! I think a similar situation in the LCD market is happening today. Inventory levels are slowly climbing in the US for LCD TVs and in general demand for high-tech goods are lukewarm. Will it get any better? It is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t expect a miracle to happen where all of the sudden everyone goes out and spends thousands on LCD TVs, LCD monitors and notebook PCs.

It is to everyone’s benefit for the LCD supply chain to be smooth and without hiccups. But with LCD manufacturers loading 32″ LCD TV panels at their G8 and G7 lines in addition to putting more focus on IT panels, their profit margins are at stake. Will really low prices for LCD TVs and monitors get consumers to buy in 2H’08? To some extent, but we need credit and disposable income to do that; two things all of us are wanting more of these days.

]]> By: ama123 http://www.displayblog.com/2008/04/08/lg-display-to-post-strong-q1-results/#comment-167 ama123 Wed, 09 Apr 2008 14:50:02 +0000 http://displayblog.wordpress.com/?p=1119#comment-167 A breath of fresh air from someone who actually has no axe to grind. I've been following the LCD industry for ~6 yrs as an analyst, and its interesting to note that analysts in panel producing countries tend to be the last to acknowledge any incremental change in the LCD environment until they have been hit over the head with it. Chinese New Year, the last time OEMs ordered for an event, was a disaster. We will never know whether they ordered incorrectly, or whether it was due to the snowstorm, however its a known fact that inventory levels escalated from the normal 3-4 weeks to at least 6-7. With slowing demand in the TV space, it remains a question as to how much of that is gone, and how aggressive the OEMs are being, or will be in anticipation of the Chinese Olympics, another event, particularly one where we have very little local Chinese LCD TV buying habit info. Another poor set of decisions, meaning over ordering or less demand than anticipated, would be dangerous to the 3rd quarter build period and put a major crimp in the year for the panel producers. It all means that the risk level for the panel guys is higher than it was last year, when we saw rising prices, no capex, and strong demand. I don't need to rethink my numbers, but I agree whole haeartedly with Jin. While I might be a bit on the pessimistic side, always waving the flag does every investor a disservice. A breath of fresh air from someone who actually has no axe to grind. I’ve been following the LCD industry for ~6 yrs as an analyst, and its interesting to note that analysts in panel producing countries tend to be the last to acknowledge any incremental change in the LCD environment until they have been hit over the head with it. Chinese New Year, the last time OEMs ordered for an event, was a disaster. We will never know whether they ordered incorrectly, or whether it was due to the snowstorm, however its a known fact that inventory levels escalated from the normal 3-4 weeks to at least 6-7. With slowing demand in the TV space, it remains a question as to how much of that is gone, and how aggressive the OEMs are being, or will be in anticipation of the Chinese Olympics, another event, particularly one where we have very little local Chinese LCD TV buying habit info.
Another poor set of decisions, meaning over ordering or less demand than anticipated, would be dangerous to the 3rd quarter build period and put a major crimp in the year for the panel producers.
It all means that the risk level for the panel guys is higher than it was last year, when we saw rising prices, no capex, and strong demand. I don’t need to rethink my numbers, but I agree whole haeartedly with Jin. While I might be a bit on the pessimistic side, always waving the flag does every investor a disservice.

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